Is the Bull Market Really Over? | Insights from Key Observations
Edited By
Rahul Patel
In a recent discussion, many people are expressing their views on whether the current crypto bull market is at an end. Analysts point to several key indicators suggesting the market is still in a mid-cycle phase, not at a top.
Key Indicators Suggesting the Bull Market Is Not Over
Lack of Euphoria
People remember the excitement seen during previous market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, where every trader was buzzing. As one commenter noted, "there was zero real euphoria" this time around. The absence of retail mania signals potential room for growth.
Historical Timing of Peaks
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's peak typically occurs 12-20 months after a halving. The last halving happened in April 2024, meaning a potential peak falls between late 2025 and early 2026. This timeline could indicate that the market has more time to run.
Signals from RSI Levels
The current RSI (Relative Strength Index) is around 76, far from the 85-95 range observed during cycle tops in the past. A user mentioned, "That’s mid-cycle, not end-cycle," reinforcing the notion that the market has not fully topped out yet.
Expanding Global Liquidity
With global liquidity still growing, injecting roughly $1 trillion every three months, the market might be set for bullish continuation into late 2025. Commenters emphasized the liquidity issue, mentioning that many countries are net-liquidity positive.
"We are NOT at the top – this is a mid-cycle shakeout that looks scary but structurally healthy," noted one informed voice in the community.
Mixed Sentiments from the Community
While some people show optimism, others express skepticism. Comments reveal a mix of sentiments:
Doubt about the economic environment: "Economic cycles have stalled. There’s no retail interest due to financial constraints."
Concerns for future performance: "Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diminishing returns explain the lack of craziness."
Skepticism towards traditional views: "Not all cycles are topped by mania. Retail across the Western world is struggling."
What’s Next?
While some believe a bear market may be on the way, many in the community maintain hope. They argue that current market patterns strongly suggest we are still in a growth phase, with shakeouts expected as a natural part of the cycle.
Key Takeaways
✪ Current RSI levels suggest we are not at a peak
🌊 Global liquidity expansion could boost market growth
🏦 Economic concerns may be limiting retail participation
It's clear that perspectives vary widely, but many voices lean towards the view that the bull market remains intact, albeit with some headwinds ahead.
What Lies Ahead?
There's a strong chance that the crypto market could witness a continued upswing through 2025, potentially reaching new highs. Analysts point out that with Bitcoin's next peak expected between late 2025 and early 2026 due to the halving cycle, we could look at a 60-70% probability of a bullish trend. Additionally, as global liquidity remains robust with an influx of funds, many experts believe this could provide enough momentum for further growth. However, economic concerns might dampen retail participation, which could lead to intermittent shakeouts. Thus, the next few months will be crucial in observing how these competing factors play out in shaping the market's trajectory.
Parallels in Economic Cycles
Consider the roaring 1920s, especially in the realm of consumer goods and technology. Despite the rapid advancements and optimism, many people doubted the sustainability of such growth amid stock market speculation. Yet, it wasn't until the roaring twenties led to a transformative decade that the full potential of that era was realized. Much like today’s crypto climate, the exuberance and skepticism danced together. The lesson here is that periods of doubt often precede significant innovation and opportunity, suggesting that today’s crypto market might similarly surprise those who hesitate.